Today, we’re looking at not only the new releases we’ll likely see this year—with quite a lot of anniversaries on the calendar—but we’re also naming the watches that might not survive 2025.
The watch industry can function on a bit of a one-in, one-out policy, so for every new release we’re given, it’s reasonable to assume that some old favorites will be taken away. This, for better or for worse, has major implications for brands like Patek, Rolex, Omega, Tudor, and others.
This is an article where the comment section is going to be particularly important. Together, we can crowdsource the prediction process and let the best guess win.
Patek Philippe
Patek has already discontinued a handful of references leading up to Watches & Wonders. You’d think they’d do it on the day they announce the new releases, but keen observers have noticed that some are already missing from the brand’s website. We’re talking about classics like the steel Nautilus 5712 that could easily be replaced with a white gold 5812G. The Aquanaut 5167 on a bracelet is gone too, and it’ll be interesting to see if that gets reincarnated somehow. The Pilot Travel Time 5524G has disappeared (not my favorite), but I’m sad to see the 5208R get cut. It’s such a handsome combination of black and rose gold. And for whatever reason, the 5370P split-seconds chronograph is gone as well. It’s highly revered by collectors, and prices for that watch are already sky-high, so I’m curious to see how that dust settles. Oh, and also, the blinged-out Nautilus 5719 is gone, but I don’t think any watch nerds like us are gonna cry about it.
That’s kind of a big list already, but we could see even more on the chopping block from Patek by the time Watches & Wonders kicks off in April.
Audemars Piguet
2025 is the 150th anniversary of AP, and I was going to say that maybe we’ll get some sort of perpetual calendar Royal Oak, maybe some sort of souped-up Offshore, and a new CODE 11.59 to provide an option outside of the Royal Oak line. That all turned out to be true, but honestly, AP is the easiest brand to make predictions for because their model lineup is so focused. So if you guess more of the same but a bit better, you would also be correct.
The new releases include new perpetual calendars in both the Royal Oak and the CODE 11.59. These are based around the new caliber 7138, which controls all of the perpetual calendar functions via the crown. AP is certainly not the first brand to do this, but it’s a nice upgrade that does away with all the mysterious pushers and styluses needed. However, I think the most memorable parts are the refined color palettes, including their sand gold alloy.
The new CODE 11.59s might not be top sellers, but they feel like a step in the right direction for this model. And I think the community in general is warming up to these watches. Also, the new ceramic Offshore Chronographs are sick if you’re into that sort of thing. The ceramic makes the watches lighter on the wrist, but the price tag is heavy.
The only thing I would add for perhaps later in the year would be another revitalized archival design through their [RE]Master program. The two we’ve seen so far have been divisive, but there are plenty more great models in the attic to pull from. My best guess would be that we’ll see one, if not more, of these designs reemerge for the 150th anniversary.
In terms of discontinuations, we shouldn’t expect too much. Although they have a relatively new CEO in place as of about a year ago, they could shake things up a bit. It’s also easier to subtract some existing watches than it is to add new ones.
Omega
Omega is celebrating 30 years of its James Bond collaboration, and you know Omega never misses a marketing opportunity. It’s gonna be a minute before we get another James Bond film, but you can bet that we will be seeing some sort of 007-themed watch from Omega in the coming months.
In terms of discontinuations, Omega is a company that seems comfortable with having a lot of watches for sale at any given time. Editor-in-Chief of Fratello Watches and Omega enthusiast Robert-Jan Broer thinks that the Globemaster collection is a bit stagnant and could get cut, and I agree: if any Omega collection is ging to go, that feels like the most likely candidate. Realistically, I think they might adjust their production numbers of various references behind the scenes based on 2024’s sales while still offering a wide, wide range in their catalog.
Vacheron Constantin
Before we get to Rolex and Tudor, let’s talk about Vacheron. It’s the brand’s 270th anniversary this year, and while that’s not as significant as, say, 250 or 275, you can expect to see more releases beyond just the steel 222. A likely scenario would be a highly technical, highly complicated super watch that’s done more for symbolism than for sales. There are plenty of vintage models they could bring back that we covered in our Vacheron deep dive, but let’s not hold our breath.
And if they do discontinue the old to make way for the new, I have an idea. The Vacheron Constantin Fifty-Six collection feels too safe—or at least, not special enough for a brand like this. It’s not a watch that you see or hear about often, and if they are looking to trim some fat for whatever reason, this could be an easy place to do it.
Tudor
Tudor is a tough one. There are quite a few watches they could discontinue that would focus the catalog more, but the question is more if they want to do that. The Pelagos LHD is a great example. These watches with the crown on the left are numbered and therefore limited. It’s only a matter of time before Tudor decides to enforce that limit.
Dressier options like the Tudor Royal, the 1926, or the Clair de Rose would be easy to cut. They’re not ones that watch enthusiasts really think about, but they could be selling well enough among normal people.
The Black Bay P01 is one of the most divisive watches in the industry. It’s been a stepchild of the Black Bay family since it was introduced, and Tudor could decide to cut it out of the will sooner rather than later.
Rolex
This all brings us to Rolex. If you’ve been paying really close attention, you’ll know that the crown has already been quietly removing watches from its website, and those moves give us clues as to what else they’re taking offline.
If you Google the Rolex puzzle dial Day-Date – you know, the one with emojis and words of affirmation where the useful stuff should be – you’ll see that the only thing left is the press release. Rolex doesn’t announce when watches get discontinued, we just have to figure this stuff out for ourselves. That watch was released two years ago, and now it’s gone. They did a similar thing last year with the palm dial Datejusts three years after they were released. The colorful dial OPs including the yellow and the Tiffany blue? Those were gone after only one year.
These discontinuations point to some other likely discontinuations on the horizon. You know the Celebration Dial Oyster Perpetual? That’s been around for two years already, and the life expectancy for any of the more out-there dials is not looking too optimistic. Even the Air King is rumored to be in danger. It’s another more adventurous dial choice on arguably the most expendable Rolex model that doesn’t provide something super unique compared to similar and more established watches like the Explorer or the Oyster Perpetual.
Now let’s talk about what could happen within the GMT lineup. 2025 is the 70th anniversary of the Rolex GMT. We’ve had more new GMT releases than expected in recent years, but you also assume they’ll do something for the anniversary. The speculation so far seems to be hoping for either a platinum GMT or maybe even a return of the red and black Coke bezel.
Rolex typically keeps a tight catalogue compared to nearly every other major watch brand, and if they did want or need to get rid of an existing GMT to free up some space, which one do you think they’d choose? If we’re following the earlier logic that more experimental watches have shorter life spans, then the love-it-or-hate-it Sprite GMT would be the most likely contender.
All we can tell you is, get your score cards ready because it’s going to be a wild year. I KNOW you’ve got a prediction for what you want to see or expect to see this year, so make it known in a comment below.
